By Scott Bowles, USA TODAY
LAS VEGAS — When theater owners gathered here last year for the ShoWest convention, they came with the swagger of gamblers betting on a fixed fight. This year, the odds are trickier.
That's what happens when you don't begin your summer with installments of Spider-Man, Shrek and Pirates of the Caribbean, the movies that jump-started May and led Hollywood to its biggest summer — and year — on record.
This summer rides on the shoulders of an aging action hero, an untested cartoon character and four women from a TV show that went off the air four years ago.
"There's no question there's more uncertainty," says Rob Moore, vice chairman of Paramount Pictures. "Last year we had three franchises that we knew were going to be huge. This year, we have a couple that we know will be big, and more that we hope will be big."
Among films considered probable blockbusters: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, Iron Man, Sex and the City and The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian. But of those, only Jones is considered a favorite to crack $300 million, as Spider-Man, Shrek and Pirates all did last summer, Hollywood's most important season, when at least 40% of the industry's tickets are sold.
"We certainly come into this summer with more question marks," says Paul Dergarabedian of Media By Numbers. "I think what Hollywood hopes to do is have two really solid movies for every huge hit we had last year. But that means more movies have to perform."
And that means relying on untested films such as Speed Racer, the Will Smith action film Hancock and the animated Kung Fu Panda to fill theaters.
Dan Glickman, head of the Motion Picture Association of America, says that with 28 movies crossing the $100 million mark in 2007, summer doesn't rely on a handful of gigantic movies. "No matter what's going on in the world, there's a great desire for people to see films," he says.
Still, studios will premiere several movies this week not only to persuade theater owners to put their movies onto more screens but also to allay fears that 2008 could break the streak of three straight years of increased revenue.
"I don't know that anyone is going to guarantee we have a summer as huge as we did last year," Moore says. "But we do know some will be really big, and we're bringing movies that could be dependable franchises. So we feel pretty good."
2 comments:
Oh, jeepers crow. A few years ago it was all whining about how movies weren't performing well, and then they get three consecutive years of increased profits and immediately start whining AGAIN when a whiff of uncertainty hits the air. And what are we pining for? "Oh, there's no Spiderman movie, there's no Pirates movie!" Both those movies were utter CRAP.
But since they made big bucks (thanks to their superior predecessors), of course I'm talking nonsense.
Yeah, and what about Iron Man? There are a ton of movies coming out this summer that are going to make big $.
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