Hollywood gets ready to segue into summer

From USAtoday, "Hollywood loves to repeat itself. But studios would rather avoid a sequel to last summer's bummer, when the box office slipped 9%.
The fuse is lit and burning for the start of the major moviegoing season, Mission: Impossible III, arriving May 5. There must be a few heroes who can undermine The Slump II. Maybe Mission man Tom Cruise. Or the new Superman.

As for less super types, Jack Black squeezes into tights as a Mexican wrestler in Nacho Libre, and an egghead Tom Hanks is on the case in The Da Vinci Code.

USA TODAY's Scott Bowles, Anthony Breznican, Claudia Puig, Mike Snider and Susan Wloszczyna examines 13 potential heroes and their potential to fly or flop.

SUMMER MOVIES CALENDAR: Plan your box office entertainment

Tom Cruise in 'Mission: Impossible III,' May 5

The plot: Super spy Ethan Hunt falls in love and faces off with an evil arms dealer (Philip Seymour Hoffman).

Why he may soar: When has Cruise not? At 42, Cruise has powered 14 films to blockbuster status in North America, more than any other star, and seems impervious to the publicity surrounding his love life and belief in Scientology. And with director J.J. Abrams and Oscar winner Hoffman in this latest chapter of Mission: Impossible, Cruise seems destined for his 15th hit.

Why he may crash: Spy fatigue. Abrams concedes that he's competing with television shows like 24 and his own Alias, along with the return of James Bond later this year, for audience attention. "It can be a bit much," he says. "I think we have to hark back to some elements of the classic TV show to be heard through all the noise."

Gitesh Pandya of boxofficeguru.com, though, believes the film is a lock. "It's the first big movie of summer, and people are going to be hungry for explosions and car chases."


Josh Lucas in 'Poseidon,' May 12

The plot: When a luxury cruise ship is flipped by a surging wave, a gambler (Lucas) reluctantly leads passengers to safety.

Why he may soar: Wolfgang knows action. With director Wolfgang Petersen (The Perfect Storm, Air Force One) and $140 million worth of special effects behind him, Lucas may be ready to take his place among heavyweight action stars.

Why he may crash: Real-world events. After Hurricane Katrina, are moviegoers ready to see drowning on the big screen? "I expect some people will walk out of the theater," Petersen says. "But I don't want to be timid. I want to treat the disaster genre realistically. That's what makes it effective and truly scary."

Pandya says the film will face tough competition, coming a week after Mission and a week before Da Vinci Code. "It's stuck in a real tough month," he says. "That may have the toughest time of the big films of May."


Tom Hanks in 'The Da Vinci Code,' May 19

The plot: A symbologist is drawn into a murder mystery that involves the origins of Christianity.

Why he may soar: Forty million readers and counting. The runaway hit by author Dan Brown assures that the film adaptation has all the name recognition it needs. And with Hanks in the role of daring symbologist Robert Langdon, the film could be the hit of summer.

Why he may crash: Religious outcry. Opus Dei, the Roman Catholic group portrayed as murderers in Da Vinci, has already asked distributor Sony Pictures to include a disclaimer that the thriller is entirely fictional. And more protests may be coming, says director Ron Howard: "It's a work of fiction, but every once in a while, good popular fiction stimulates debate. And that's OK."

Pandya says the movie "is pretty much a guaranteed hit. You've got a huge fan base and a whole other group that hasn't read the book but is really curious about it."


Hugh Jackman in 'X-Men: The Last Stand,' May 26

The plot: The X-men are offered a "cure" for their mutations.

Why he may soar: History. The X-Men series is one of the most successful comic book franchises in history, having raked in more than $370 million with two films. And Jackman promises this will be the last. "It's a little melancholy, saying goodbye, but it's right for the story."

Why he may crash: History. Comic book fans were more than a little peeved when Brett Ratner (the Rush Hour films) took the reins from Bryan Singer, who directed the first two films. "They don't really like change," Ratner says of the comic book and Internet communities. "But I think we'll be able to settle their concerns pretty quickly."

"This could be the biggest movie of the summer," Pandya says. "The first two movies have lived up to expectations, and a change of directors may make the last one fresh."


Jack Black in 'Nacho Libre,' June 16

The plot: A timid cook at a Mexican monastery raises money for orphans by secretly moonlighting as a luchador (that's a wrestler, for the ring-impaired).

Why he may soar: Mild, inept chef by day, wild masked marauder by night, Black is back where he belongs — far away from scene-stealing gorillas. Instead, he is in the capable comic hands of writer Mike White (School of Rock) and director-writer Jared Hess (Napoleon Dynamite).

"Nacho is a flawed human," says Hess of Black's character, who gets distracted from his mission by newfound fame. "But he eventually comes to his senses about what his priorities are." As for Black, he says, "He definitely brings a special sauce to whatever he does." His prowess at physical humor is front and center, but "he also shows a tender side I haven't seen before."

Why he may crash: The sport might be a tad too esoteric for much of the country. But the chance to observe Black go ape in a cape will be hard to resist. "This is the way we want to see him," says Rolling Stone critic Peter Travers. "This is the Jack we knew and love from School of Rock." Besides, he says, "We like seeing overweight people strip down."


Adam Sandler in 'Click,' June 23

The plot: Husband, father and architect Michael Newman has a hard time juggling the demands of job and home. That is, until he buys a magical universal remote — one that allows him to fast-forward, pause, skip and slow down his cluttered world.

Why he may soar: What sounds like a high-tech version of Bruce Almighty might be a perfect transitional vehicle for Sandler, who turns 40 this year and is expecting his first child — a girl — with wife Jackie any day. And with the womanly Kate Beckinsale (Underworld: Evolution) as his spouse, the film promises to be more femme friendly than last summer's jockstrap-o-rama The Longest Yard.

"He is an average-guy superhero in this," says director Frank Coraci (The Wedding Singer, The Waterboy). "A guy with everyday problems trying to make ends meet." He might think he has found a solution. But, as he gets older, "He realizes he is missing out on big chunks of his life."

Why he may crash: What's with all this domesticity? Happy Gilmore doesn't need no stinking wife and children to be funny. Not to worry, fans. Just wait till you see what Sandler does when a well-endowed jogger bounces by and his dog has to poop. "The pieces in the trailer suggest you may get older but you can stay immature forever," Rolling Stone's Travers says.


Brandon Routh in 'Superman Returns,' June 30

The plot: Long-absent Man of Steel returns to Earth — is Lois still waiting?

Why he may soar: It's the first Superman movie in nearly 20 years, since Christopher Reeve last wore the cape in 1987's ill-received Superman IV: The Quest for Peace. Plus, Bryan Singer is directing after delivering two smash X-Men movies. Routh says Superman will have internal strife, much like recent screen incarnations of Spider-man and Batman: "It's about how he feels about his destiny to be the world's protector. Even though he's an alien, he wants to be part of the world. We see him through some challenging emotional situations."

Why he may crash: Routh, like Reeve was at first, is an unknown — but the character will be the draw. Peter Guber, host of AMC's Sunday Morning Shootout, says its budget and marketing costs — likely topping $300 million — mean it can't be just a hit, it has to be a super, monster mega-hit: "Whether Superman will fly at the altitude and velocity it needs to — which is big and far — I couldn't answer, but it will fly. And it will be a major identified flying object this summer."



Johnny Depp in 'Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest,' July 7

The plot: Captain Jack Sparrow, the ultimate scene-stealer from Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, is back for more swaggering and staggering — this time taking on Davy Jones and his battalion of zombie soldiers.

Why he may soar: This role in the 2003 blockbuster put Depp over the top. He was nominated for an Oscar, rare for a comedic performance. "I suspect Johnny Depp's second stab at this character will be equally triumphant," says Howard A. Rodman of USC's School of Cinema-Television. "His sly, fey kohl-eyed Keith Richards imitation found a large audience, particularly among young women, who seemed thrilled to be offered an alternative to the pumped-up, fast and furious swaggerings of more traditionally 'masculine' hunks."

Why he may crash: Will Captain Jack's posturing get old?


Paul Giamatti in 'Lady in the Water,' July 21

The plot: A building super finds a nymph in the apartment pool.

Why he may soar: Timing. With director M. Night Shyamalan (Signs, The Sixth Sense) in his corner, Giamatti seems primed to be an A-list leading man after strong turns in Cinderella Man and Sideways.

Why he may crash: Sky-high expectations. After a middling reception for 2004's The Village, which did $114.2 million, Shyamalan faces pressure to deliver a suspenseful summer hit. "I don't want to be the 'twist ending' director," he says. "I'm not afraid to tell a straight fairy tale. You can't make movies based on what people expect you to do."

Pandya says the film may be challenged by a lack of high-profile stars, "but the real draw of this is Shyamalan. The Village faded fast, but he's still a bankable director for scary films. And there aren't a lot of scary movies this summer."


Uma Thurman in 'My Super Ex-Girlfriend,' July 21

The plot: Superheroine gets super-mad when dumped by a beau.

Why she may soar: Remember Kill Bill? As a superhero using her powers to make ex Luke Wilson suffer, Thurman could attract both the comic book and the date crowd. "She has a terrible bad attitude and it's fun to play such an ill-tempered hero," says Thurman. "Take all of the most neurotic qualities of the most insecure girlfriend you ever had, and then give her excessive power, like the ability to turn a tantrum into an earthquake."

Why she may crash: Competition is tough this summer. "This is not a franchise picture," says Shootout's Guber. "It could do wonderful if it's outrageously funny and work in a sense of Scary Movie to spoof superhero stuff."


Will Ferrell in 'Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby,' Aug. 4

The plot: All-American driver faces French foe.

Why he may soar: Audiences seem to prefer Ferrell as the main attraction, which he is in this racing comedy. And his race car driver Ricky Bobby could drive the fervent NASCAR audience into theaters. Ferrell has "made some terrific films that have appealed to a very broad audience, so it made a lot of sense for us," says Sarah Nettinga, an executive producer on the film and director of film, television and music entertainment for NASCAR.

Bobby, says Ferrell, "is this brash, cocky Southern driver who lives by one motto: 'If you ain't first, you are last.' ... He's a bit of a throwback."

The heroic arc for Bobby includes a downfall, says Ferrell, who co-wrote the screenplay with Adam McKay (Anchorman). "In the end, he figures out the right way to drive and the right way to live his life," Ferrell says. "So, he's a pretty good hero."

Why he may crash: Ferrell doesn't channel the archetypical hero's persona. And, most important, will NASCAR fans get the joke?


Nicolas Cage in 'World Trade Center,' Aug. 9

The plot: New York Port Authority cops are trapped in the World Trade Center on 9/11.

Why he may soar: This film will focus on one story of inspiration and triumph in a day of unparalleled horrors. Cage has proven himself a reliable action hero in National Treasure and Con Air, and he has shown depth in his Oscar-winning Leaving Las Vegas. "I don't know if I'm going to put the title of entertainment on World Trade Center," Cage says. "I do see it as storytelling that documents history."

Why he may crash: Though director Oliver Stone adds prestige, his conspiracy-theory reputation may unfairly alienate people from a movie that attempts not to take a political stand. Shootout's Guber says WTC's fate is tied to Universal's 9/11 movie United 93, which will forecast success or rejection: "This film is drafting behind that film."


Samuel L. Jackson in 'Snakes on a Plane,' Aug. 18

The plot: Hundreds of serpents are set loose on a flight from Honolulu to L.A. that's carrying a witness expected to testify against a Mob boss, and it's Jackson's FBI agent Nelville Flynn to the rescue.

Why he may soar: Snakes are fine and a plane is dandy, but without our man Sam in charge, this chunk of cinematic cheese would likely curdle upon impact. In other words, "If it were Paul Walker in Snakes on a Plane, no one is going," says Rolling Stone's Peter Travers. "You know Sam will have his usual spark and sense of humor."

Jackson says of his character, "He's a career FBI agent who has been through a divorce and is now married to his job. But he's not a by-the-book kind of guy. He believes danger is part of his life and relishes it."

Flynn also relishes digging around the cargo hold for possible weapons. "He shoots a spear gun when he comes under attack by seven different rattlesnakes," says director David R. Ellis.

Why he may crash: Internet hype in April can only elevate a B-movie thrill ride so high. "The snake effects have to be good," Travers says.

Still, Jackson understands what audiences want. "You have to see fangs sink into someone's flesh. A snake's head has to be cut off with blood shooting everywhere. It's the kind of movie that makes you want to scream, 'Don't go in there.' "